In a world where health outcomes are more and more connected to lifestyle choices, the use of tobacco is a major issue with wide-ranging effects. A recent report by the World Health Organization (WHO) indicates a significant drop in global tobacco consumption. According to WHO’s data, now only one in five people aged over 15 use tobacco, compared to one in three back in 2000.
We’re super curious about this headline at Goblin Data – what’s the deal with the reduction in tobacco prices, tax revenue, and overall production? And is it really a big deal that it dropped from “1 in 3” to “1 in 5”?
The comparison from 2000 to 2024 paints an intriguing picture. In 2000, there were approximately 1.362 billion tobacco users worldwide. By 2023, this number has dropped to 1.245 billion—a decline of 117 million. This data shows a positive trajectory of public health education and anti-tobacco policies.

Despite the decrease in tobacco users, the prices of tobacco commodities have remained relatively stable. The index for tobacco commodity prices has shown only a slight increase. This stability, in contrast to the declining demand for tobacco, suggests that the industry is adapting to a world where governments heavily tax tobacco products and promote strong anti-smoking messages in their health marketing campaigns.
The chart below illustrates the remarkable price stability of tobacco (orange line) compared to other agricultural commodities such as wheat and sugar, as well as the broader measure of changes in agricultural commodity prices (brown line) estimated by the World Bank.

Governments worldwide are really putting the pricing pressure on consumers as they rake in more tax revenues from tobacco. Getting comprehensive and reliable data on global tobacco excise revenues is a real challenge. But here’s the interesting part: despite that, some country-specific info shows that the total excise collected is actually growing faster than smoking rates. Take the UK and US governments, for example. They’ve seen a whopping tax ecise revenue surge of 16.7% and 21.4% respectively in the past couple of years.
The decline in the tobacco industry does not seem to be a total collapse, but rather an adaptation to a changing landscape where health concerns and shifting attitudes are just some of the factors at play.
For example, production is going down. From 2000 to 2021, global tobacco production has dropped by 11.9%, noting the peak around 2014:

The production decline matches the decrease in the number of smokers. But here’s the thing: even though each smoker consumes a bit less tobacco, it’s only about 4% less per person than before. It seems like smokers aren’t really cutting back on tobacco use, despite higher prices and all the health concerns. Instead, it’s just that fewer people are smoking.
We had a blast putting this analysis together. The headline of “1 in 3 people, not 1 in 5 people” really grabbed our attention, and we thought it deserved a deeper understanding. There is a lot to ponder from the data around price, production and usage.
Shoutout to these awesome sources for providing the data for this post: World Bank, International Monetary Fund and Our World in Data. And a big thank you to Canva and Flourish for the awesome visuals!